April 2, 2020 Corona Update

So, there’s some good news and some bad news.  Let’s get the bad news out of the way.

The death toll of the Corona Virus globally and the US is continuing on a trajectory predicted by public health experts a few weeks ago.   The numbers as of this morning are as follows:

Global Cases DeathsAbout 1,000,000Global Deaths48,320
US Cases217,000US Deaths 5,140
New York City Cases 47,500 NYC Deaths1374
Maryland Cases2331Maryland Deaths36
Anne Arundel Cases206AA County Deaths3

New York City cases account for about 22% of all cases in the US and 26% of the deaths.  New York, Louisiana, New Jersey, Chicago, and some small towns in Georgia,  will be faced with a high number of critically ill patients over a short period of time which will overwhelm their healthcare systems and result in deaths that may have been preventable if more capacity was available or less people got sick at once.  The most gruesome scenes of this will be broadcast over the next two weeks, but then things will begin to improve. 

On to the good news:

  1. Large cities on the west coast, (San Francisco, LA, and Seattle) through strict social distancing and proactive governance have seen a lower than expected number of cases/deaths and are expected to begin to improve.
  2. The trajectory of increase in US cases outside of New York and New Jersey has also shown some signs of leveling off.
  3. Governor Larry Hogan has been ahead of the curve on clamping down on large gatherings, closing schools and restaurants.  Though the number of cases is increasing in Maryland we may be able to avoid having a peak number of cases that overwhelm our health system.
  4. The largest number of cases are appearing at some of the top medical institutions in the country. This will result in rapid discoveries about treatment, prevention, who is most susceptible, etc.

The most effective means of stopping the pandemic and avoiding an economic catastrophe is widespread testing with the ability to get rapid results.  These rapid tests, produced by Abbot Labs, are now being mass produced but are not at the point of being widely available.  This could change over the next two weeks.  If we can identify asymptomatic carriers of the virus and get them out of circulation for two weeks, those testing negative could presumably return to work. 

For those of you interested in the science of this pandemic, check out this website.  http://covid19.healthdata.org/   You can view the expected trajectories of the virus for each state. 

Though we are all going stir crazy, the strategy of staying home and yelling at your spouse is working to decrease the severity of the pandemic.  Please stick with it.  We are available by email; phone and our office will remain open.  

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