Perhaps the most interesting news of the week is this, from yesterday’s New York Times:
But as billions of people have been instructed to stay home to try to curtail the pandemic’s spread, the roar of urban life has turned into a whisper all over the world. Today, in cities large and small, the thumping pulse of civilization is now barely detectable on many seismograms.
Seismographs used to detect earthquake activity all over the world have detected the new “hush” of civilization. That, when you think about it, is incredible.
The hush has paid dividends on the west coast, where strict lock down orders have resulted in lower than expected case numbers and deaths from Corona Virus. California, predicted to be have the greatest potential for a full-blown crisis, has been so successful in controlling the spread of disease that it is now shipping extra ventilators to New York City.
The New York City metro area, which includes northeast New Jersey, has about 40% of all Corona cases in the United States. Despite all of the bad news in New York City, new cases of Corona have begun to decline. This will begin to show up in death rates there in 7 to 10 days.
Maryland, which had fairly low Covid -19 cases over the last month is now showing an expected spike in cases and deaths. Authorities expect Maryland’s new cases to peak in 1-2 weeks, with peak resource use projected to be on April 17th. These are the current numbers (April 8) for Maryland with cases from one week ago in parentheses.
|Anne Arundel Cases
|AA County Deaths
So, what does the future hold? There are competing theories of the best way out of this. The business community is pushing to get people back to work, while the medical experts are pushing to keep people at home awhile longer. Without the availability of universal testing, there are risks in sending asymptomatic carriers of the virus back into the workplace, which could spark a second wave of spread. I think we can count on the current level of lockdown to go on through the end of April, with gradual relaxing of restrictions after that. When Covid testing becomes readily available people can go back to work safely, knowing they are not shedding the Virus.
We have all heard talk of a seasonal wave of Covid -19 occurring next fall or winter. This is certainly possible, but I think we will be armed with better weapons against the disease by then, including antiviral medications. A significant portion of the population, especially in urban areas which have seen the highest caseloads, will be immune from the virus from previous exposure.
And at least it is Spring, and it is safe to go outside and get some fresh air. Don’t slobber on anyone in the park and try to hang on for a few more weeks. Things are beginning to look up.
We will be closed tomorrow for the Holiday but will be open regular hours next week and going forward.